Khan v Cunningham: Reform Poised to Challenge Labour in London Mayor Race

Key Points

• A new Savanta poll for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London puts Labour on 33% for the 2028 London mayoral contest.
• Reform UK is second on 20%, followed by the Conservatives on 18%, the Green Party on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%.
• Under London’s supplementary vote system, Reform’s Laila Cunningham would reach a run-off against the Labour candidate, potentially Sir Sadiq Khan.
• Dr Eoghan Kelly of Queen Mary University of London said Labour would still be expected to win comfortably after second-preference votes are counted.
• Sir Sadiq Khan has a 36% satisfaction rating in London, compared with 40% who are dissatisfied, giving him a net score of –4%.
• Satisfaction with the national Labour Government is 28%, while 48% are dissatisfied, resulting in a net score of –20%.
• Sir Sadiq has not yet confirmed whether he will seek a fourth term as London Mayor.
• Nigel Farage confirmed Laila Cunningham, a former Conservative Westminster councillor, as Reform’s mayoral candidate at the start of the year.
• Sir James Cleverly, the Conservative MP for Braintree, is regarded as an early frontrunner for his party’s nomination, although Kemi Badenoch has launched a wider search.
• Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18 and over online between 10 and 17 August 2026, with the data weighted.

London (Britain Today News) August 27, 2026: Reform UK’s mayoral hopeful Laila Cunningham could leapfrog the Conservatives to reach the run-off stage against Labour in the next London mayoral election, according to a new poll that has unsettled the race for City Hall. The Savanta survey, carried out for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, shows Labour maintaining a clear lead on 33%, but with Reform UK on course to push the Conservatives into third place ahead of the contest expected in 2028.

What did the new poll reveal about the London mayoral race?

The poll places Labour on 33% of first-choice votes for the next mayoral election, comfortably ahead of the rest of the field. Reform UK follows on 20%, with the Conservatives close behind on 18%. The Green Party sits on 14%, and the Liberal Democrats trail on 10%. No individual mayoral candidates were named within the survey itself, meaning the figures reflect party support rather than personal popularity, though the implications for Reform’s declared candidate, Ms Cunningham, and her Conservative rivals are significant.

Should this pattern hold, it would represent a marked shift in London’s political landscape, where the Conservatives have traditionally occupied the role of principal challenger to Labour in mayoral contests.

Why is Reform UK’s Laila Cunningham threatening the Conservatives?

Under the current polling, Reform’s projected 20% share would be enough to see Ms Cunningham through to the final two, ahead of whichever candidate the Conservatives eventually select. This would represent a historic moment for Reform UK in the capital, a city where the party has traditionally struggled compared with its performance in other parts of the country.

The figures suggest that if the election were held today, London would face a run-off between Labour and Reform, rather than the more familiar Labour-versus-Conservative dynamic that has defined the mayoralty since it was created in 2000.

How does London’s supplementary vote system work?

Under the voting system used for the Mayor of London, voters rank a first- and second-choice candidate. If no candidate wins more than 50% of first-choice votes outright, all but the top two candidates are eliminated. The second-preference votes cast by supporters of the eliminated candidates are then reallocated to whichever of the remaining two candidates they selected, with the winner determined by the combined total.

This system means that a candidate’s standing on first preferences alone, while important for reaching the final round, does not necessarily determine the eventual winner, as the distribution of second-choice votes from eliminated candidates can prove decisive.

What did Dr Eoghan Kelly say about Labour’s prospects?

Commenting on the findings, Dr Eoghan Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, said:

“On these numbers we would expect Labour to win quite comfortably on second preferences.”

His assessment suggests that while Reform’s first-preference strength is notable, Labour’s broader appeal across London’s electorate would likely see it prevail once votes from eliminated candidates, including the Greens and Liberal Democrats, are redistributed in the final count.

Will Sadiq Khan stand for a fourth term as London mayor?

Sir Sadiq Khan, who was made a peer by Sir Keir Starmer, has not yet confirmed whether he intends to seek re-election. He has indicated that he will make a decision on his political future next year, leaving open the question of whether he will lead Labour’s campaign for a fourth consecutive term or whether the party will need to select a new standard-bearer for the 2028 contest.

Dr Kelly addressed this uncertainty directly, stating:

“These results demonstrate that a lot could change before the next mayoral election as we await a final decision by Sadiq Khan on whether he will be the Labour candidate.”

He went on to caution that Labour’s current strength in the capital may be closely tied to Sir Sadiq personally, adding:

“Khan is significantly outperforming his own party’s national leadership so it cannot be guaranteed that a different Labour candidate would have such a comfortable lead.”

How satisfied are Londoners with Sadiq Khan’s performance?

The survey also measured public satisfaction with Sir Sadiq’s record as mayor. It found that 36% of Londoners were satisfied with his performance, compared with 40% who were dissatisfied, producing a net satisfaction rating of –4%. While this represents a negative balance overall, it stands in sharp contrast to the figures recorded for the national Government, suggesting that Sir Sadiq retains a comparatively stronger personal standing among London voters than his party does nationally.

What does the poll say about trust in the national Labour government?

Satisfaction with the national Government among Londoners surveyed stood at just 28%, against 48% who said they were dissatisfied, a net rating of –20%. This gap between Sir Sadiq’s own net rating and that of the wider Labour Government underlines the extent to which his personal brand appears to be carrying Labour’s support in the capital.

Reflecting on this disparity, Dr Kelly said:

“This poll indicated that Labour has a long way to go to win back trust at the national level.”

Who is Laila Cunningham and why did Nigel Farage choose her?

Ms Cunningham previously served as a Conservative councillor in Westminster before switching her allegiance to Reform UK. Nigel Farage announced at the start of this year that she would be his party’s candidate for the London mayoralty, positioning her as the face of Reform’s push to establish a foothold in a city where the party has historically underperformed relative to its national polling.

Her candidacy has been closely watched as a test of whether Reform’s recent gains elsewhere in the country can be replicated in London, a city that has voted for Labour mayors at every election since the role was established.

Who could be the Conservative candidate for London mayor?

On the Conservative side, former Home Secretary Sir James Cleverly, the MP for Braintree in Essex, has emerged as an early frontrunner to be the party’s candidate for City Hall. However, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has launched a wider search for potential candidates, meaning the party’s eventual choice remains unconfirmed.

The absence of a settled Conservative candidate stands in contrast to Reform’s early declaration of Ms Cunningham, a difference that may be shaping the current polling picture.
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What pressure does this poll put on the Conservative Party?

The findings may increase pressure on the Conservatives to accelerate their selection process. With Reform’s candidate already established and actively building her profile, further delay in naming a Tory challenger could allow Ms Cunningham additional time to consolidate support and make her mark before the Conservatives have settled on their own contender.

Political observers will be watching closely to see whether the Conservative Party moves swiftly to name its candidate in response to these figures, given the risk that continued uncertainty could cement Reform’s position as the principal challenger to Labour in the capital.

How was the poll conducted?

Savanta interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18 and over online between 10 and 17 August 2026. The data collected was weighted to ensure it was representative of the wider London population. The survey was commissioned by the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, an academic body that regularly publishes research and polling on London-specific political trends.

With more than a year still to run before the next mayoral contest in 2028, the political picture in London remains fluid. Much will depend on whether Sir Sadiq Khan chooses to stand again, how quickly the Conservatives settle on a candidate to rival Sir James Cleverly, and whether Reform UK’s early momentum under Ms Cunningham can be sustained in a city that has consistently returned Labour mayors since the role’s creation. For now, the Savanta findings offer the clearest signal yet that London’s traditional two-party mayoral race may be entering a new and more unpredictable phase.