Shabana Mahmood Defends Early Prisoner Release Scheme

Key Points

• The release of prisoners before their actual sentences have been criticised, but the chief home minister, Shabana Mahmood, has given the go-ahead to the controversial scheme.
• The scheme is expected to release some 5,000 prisoners earlier over the next year.
• Some prisoners may be released after spending just a third of their time in prison.
• When she took up the job as justice secretary, prisons in England and Wales were filling up less than 80 places.
• There are now fewer than 1,800 places left in men’s prisons, where occupancy is 98 per cent.
• The scheme has enraged victims and their families, some of whom were told in June that they could be the victims of harm while also benefiting from the scheme.
• Prime Minister Andy Burnham stopped the scheme and banned rapists, serious child sex offenders and groomers.
• Burnham has asked Justice Secretary Alex Norris to look at preventing the early release of PC Andrew Harper’s killers.
• That case will be resolved on the return of Parliament on 1 September.
• According to the Ministry of Justice, the government is creating 14,000 more prison cells and increasing tagging and probation.

LONDON (Britain Today News) August 22, 2026 — Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has defended a controversial early release scheme that could free thousands of prisoners earlier than expected, saying she was forced to include killers, rapists and child sex offenders because England and Wales were on the brink of running out of prison places altogether.

Mahmood, who held the post of justice secretary when the scheme was drawn up, said the prison system was close to breaking point when she took charge of the department. Fewer than 80 spaces were available across the entire prison estate in England and Wales during her first week in the role, she said.

The scheme, which allows roughly 5,000 prisoners to be released earlier than their original release date over the coming year, has become one of the most contentious criminal justice policies of recent months. Some offenders, including those convicted of violent crimes, could be freed after serving as little as a third of their sentence.

Why Did Shabana Mahmood Say the Early Release Scheme Was Necessary?

Mahmood said the decision to include serious offenders in the scheme was not one she wanted to make, but argued that letting prisons run completely out of space would have caused even greater harm to the justice system as a whole.

Mahmood said,

“The choices when you are about to run out are very different, and none of these is palatable choices.”

She added that the worst possible outcome would have been prisons running out of space entirely, warning that such a collapse could have stopped police from making arrests and disrupted criminal trials across the country. Mahmood said her priority was moving the system away from the point of collapse towards something more manageable.

Mahmood said,

“I had to make choices that were about getting the system away from collapse.”

What Is the Early Release Scheme and Who Does It Affect?

The scheme was designed to ease overcrowding by allowing certain prisoners serving standard determinate sentences to leave custody before completing their full term, with the remaining portion of their sentence served under supervision in the community. It applies across a wide range of offence categories, and eligibility depends on the type of sentence and the offender’s behaviour in custody.

Ministers have faced sustained scrutiny over which categories of offenders should qualify, with the debate intensifying as more cases involving serious crimes have come to light.

How Many Prisoners Will Be Released Early Under the Scheme?

Around 5,000 prisoners are expected to be released earlier than planned over the next twelve months. Some of those eligible will be able to leave custody after serving only a third of their sentence, with the remainder served in the community, and electronic tagging used where required.

Why Has the Scheme Sparked Anger Among Victims and Families?

The policy has triggered strong criticism from victims and their relatives, particularly after some were told in June that offenders who had harmed them personally could be released under the scheme. Campaigners have argued that victims were not given sufficient warning or consultation before being informed of the possibility of early release for the offenders in their own cases.

The anger has fed into a wider political row over how the government balances prison capacity pressures against public confidence in sentencing.

How Did Andy Burnham Change the Scheme After Becoming Prime Minister?

The early release scheme was created under Mahmood’s tenure as justice secretary, but it was paused after Andy Burnham became prime minister. Burnham subsequently ordered that rapists, serious child sex offenders and groomers be excluded from the scheme entirely, narrowing its scope in response to public and political pressure.

What Has Been the Reaction to Burnham’s Changes?

Critics have accused Burnham of what they describe as “cherry-picking” which categories of prisoners should remain behind bars, arguing that the exclusions do not go far enough to reassure victims of other serious offences.

What Is Happening With the Killers of PC Andrew Harper?

Burnham has also asked Justice Secretary Alex Norris to explore ways of preventing the killers of PC Andrew Harper from qualifying for early release. Jessie Cole and Albert Bowers were jailed for 13 years in 2020 for manslaughter after PC Harper was killed while responding to a quad bike theft. A third man, Henry Long, received a 16-year indeterminate sentence and does not qualify for the scheme in any case.

A decision on how to treat the cases of Cole and Bowers is expected when Parliament returns on 1 September.

Why Are Domestic Abuse Campaigners Angry With the Proposed Changes?

The government is considering excluding prisoners convicted of manslaughter involving an “unlawful act” from the early release scheme. That proposal has already drawn criticism from domestic abuse campaigners, who point out that it would not cover some people convicted of voluntary manslaughter, a category that includes some domestic homicide cases.

Campaigners argue that any exclusion criteria must account for the specific dynamics of domestic abuse cases rather than relying solely on the technical legal classification of the offence.

How Severe Is the Prison Capacity Crisis Right Now?

Mahmood’s defence of the scheme comes as pressure on the prison estate begins to rise once again. Fewer than 1,800 spaces now remain in men’s prisons across England and Wales, which are currently 98 per cent full. That leaves the system with little margin to absorb any sudden increase in the prison population.

What Is the Earned Progression Model Under the Sentencing Act 2026?

The Sentencing Act 2026 introduced what is known as an “earned progression model”, replacing automatic release at the halfway point of a sentence for prisoners serving standard determinate sentences with a system that depends partly on behaviour in custody.

Under the model, most eligible prisoners can be released after serving a third of their sentence, with the remaining portion served under supervision in the community and, where required, subject to electronic tagging. Prisoners serving certain sexual or violent offences can become eligible at the halfway point rather than two-thirds of their sentence, provided they have not committed serious breaches of prison rules while in custody.

Who Decides Whether a Prisoner Qualifies?

Eligibility is assessed on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the nature of the offence, the length of sentence and the individual’s conduct record while serving their time.
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What Is the Government Doing to Tackle the Prison Capacity Crisis?

The Ministry of Justice said ministers were fast-tracking a plan to keep more of the most dangerous offenders behind bars, while continuing to address the underlying capacity shortage.

The Ministry of Justice said,

“Fast-tracking a plan to keep more of the most dangerous offenders behind bars.”

The department said it was also building 14,000 new prison places, expanding the use of electronic tagging and investing further in probation services to support offenders released into the community. Officials have framed these measures as a long-term solution to overcrowding, alongside the more immediate steps taken under the early release scheme.

What Happens Next?

With Parliament due to return on 1 September, attention will turn to how ministers handle the specific case of PC Andrew Harper’s killers, and whether further categories of offenders will be excluded from the scheme. The debate over how to balance prison capacity against public safety and victims’ confidence in the justice system looks set to continue in the weeks ahead.

Mahmood has maintained that the choices made during her time as justice secretary were about steering the system away from collapse and towards a more sustainable footing, even if the decisions involved were, in her words, far from ideal.